I am a soccer fan and I am watching European Cup. Who is with me?
I have been pondering an idea of prediction market linked to European Cup for some time. I would love to share it with Conflux community.
There will be 16 national teams in the knockout match phase. How could we set up a market driven mechanism to reflect its odds in the final ranks? How could the numbers of odds change dynamically as the Cup goes on?
Here is a proposed structure: Each team has a staking contract（vault) and 100 team badges ready for distribution. Soccer fans can stake any amount of cfx in exchange for team badgers before the knockout match begins. They can choose one or a few teams they love to support.
Right before the knockout match, the staking period will end and the team badges will be distributed to the fans. The exchange rate will be calculated according to how many cfx are staked in each team’s vault. So the odds will be reflected by the amount of cfx staked in the staking contract. Once the distribution ends, the team badges start to trade 7/24.
For all the cfx collected, they will be distributed to those badge holders whose teams rank the top three places. So once a team is eliminated, the price of team badges drops to zero in theory unless it takes a position in the top 3. Or maybe there is some souvenir value left. For the winners, the price eventually will converge on how much it could be rewarded out of the entire staking pool.
Who is with me? Shall we kick off a small experiment on Conflux?
A developer is encouraged to take a cut from the cfx collected. Maybe 5~10%?