Zenco’s U.S. Election Prediction Activity Review
Crypto Prediction Markets Are Booming – Zenco Explores U.S. Election Predictions
With the global rise in prediction markets, more users are expressing their opinions through these platforms, and crypto-based platforms like Polymarket are experiencing rapid growth. Zenco, as the first prediction and SocialFi platform on Conflux, recognized the significant potential in prediction markets. Leveraging global interest in the U.S. election, Zenco launched its first crypto-prediction activity on Conflux eSpace, focusing on the U.S. election as a way to gather real-world data, test market intelligence, and explore innovative event formats.
Diverse Election Predictions Across Platforms
Throughout the election prediction activity, different platforms displayed distinct prediction outcomes. Traditional election models based on polls initially suggested a close race, but decentralized prediction platforms like Polymarket had already estimated Trump’s winning odds at around 62% before the election began. During the election, even as mainstream media awaited official results, Polymarket raised Trump’s victory probability to 97%, reflecting the unique responsiveness of prediction markets.
Zenco’s US election prediction activity attracted 212 participants, most of whom were from regions outside North America and Europe. The voting results showed that Trump had overwhelming popularity.
In the early stage of the activity, Trump’s prize pool was far greater than Harris’, even reaching an extreme ratio of 98.6:1.4. By the end of Zenco’s prediction activity, 63% of CFX was bet on Trump’s victory, while Harris only accounted for 37%, creating a notable 26% difference in perceived victory rates.
User Preferences and Behavior Observations
On Polymarket, due to a more diverse user base, the support trend fluctuated at different time nodes, and Harris’ betting support remained relatively active even as Trump’s support rate rose in the later stages of the election.
However, Zenco’s early promotion efforts in the North American market were limited, especially after restrictions on platforms like Twitter reduced visibility. As a result, Zenco’s reach in North America and Europe was low, impacting participation rates in those regions. Additionally, as a newly launched platform, Zenco had yet to build user trust, leading to smaller bet amounts, with 65% of users placing wagers of 10 CFX or less.
Data shows that many participants in the event lacked confidence in Harris’s chances, leading to more conservative betting behaviors and a relatively shallow Harris prize pool. Before September 29, CFX bets on Harris accounted for only 1.4% of the total prize pool. To balance the user experience, Zenco allocated an amount of CFX to the Harris pool equal to that in the Trump pool, ensuring adequate support for the opposing side. However, even with this adjustment, Trump’s projected win rate on Zenco remained consistently higher than Harris’s for most of the event, reflecting significant regional differences in information access and opinion expression among users.
(Graph of Trump vs. Harris Winning Probability on Polymarket: Red represents Trump, Blue represents Harris)
Conclusion
The data and community observations indicate that Zenco participants had greater trust in Trump, with significantly higher support rates compared to Harris. This discrepancy may stem from Trump’s higher visibility and familiarity among users outside of North America and Europe, where Harris’s exposure and information accessibility were more limited.
Activity Reflection
Although the event garnered a certain level of participation, there were areas for improvement. On one hand, the event’s launch process was relatively slow, which prevented some users from joining in time and missed peak traffic. On the other hand, promotional efforts in North America were insufficient, resulting in limited reach and lower user engagement in that region.
In addition, we had also considered placing counter-bets in Trump’s pool to enhance user participation, but this was ultimately avoided as it would significantly reduce the prize pool if Trump won, potentially harming user experience. While the absence of counter-bets did incur some costs, it proved worthwhile from a user engagement and market vitality perspective.
Future Outlook
As the first prediction and SocialFi platform on Conflux, the U.S. election prediction activity was an exploratory step for Zenco. Moving forward, Zenco will continue expanding the diversity of prediction activities, adding topics of interest such as CFX or BTC price trends, and will offer additional bonuses to encourage user participation. Additionally, Zenco plans to open up user-driven prediction events and support a wider variety of token wagers, enhancing the platform’s openness and versatility.
We look forward to users from various communities joining Zenco to build an open, diverse, and innovative prediction market platform together. If you have suggestions or would like to contribute to Zenco’s ecosystem, please reach out at any time!